Dusit Thani

The last time I presented the onulite of this framework at a Petrochemical giant in Pakistan, I barely managed to escape with my ego and my framework in tatters. So yes, this need to be localized and customized for a region, a client and a product/input. And yes it also needs to be applied in layer and needs to be presented keeping in view the executive level of the audience. At the highest level you are only asking for approvals and possibly direction on your recommendations. At the lowest you get into the math. And the math and the model changes depending on what is it that you are modeling. The math btw uses Value at Risk as a starting point and then we add some proprietary tweaks. The rationale behind presenting the framework was to put a starting point out there, which could serve as a marker on a very long road. I haven't used Bayesian networks at all. I did some work with Neural Networks two decades ago but since then have used a mix of distribution analysis and some trading rules of thumbs and common sense.