Oscar preview

Chris Tilly predicts who will win the main categories, and points out where the Academy will get it wrong.

Feb 22 2007

With the Oscar ceremony less than 76 hours away, I thought I’d round up the movers and shakers in the main categories, picking the nominees I think should win and the ones who will. So without further ado…

Best Picture
'Babel'
'The Departed'
'Letters From Iwo Jima'
'Little Miss Sunshine'
'The Queen'

This is perhaps the most open category of the big six. 'Letters From Iwo Jima' was an early favourite, but the hype around Clint's war epic seems to have died down of late. Then 'Little Miss Sunshine' took the lead by winning Golden Globes aplenty. And now, with 'The Departed' earning all sorts of directing kudos (see below), Scorsese's gangster thriller has taken a narrow lead. Whichever film is victorious though, just be happy that 'Crash' can’t win again.

Who should win: 'Letters From Iwo Jima'
Who will win: 'The Departed'

Best Director
Alejandro González Iñárritu – 'Babel'
Martin Scorsese – 'The Departed'
Clint Eastwood – 'Letters From Iwo Jima'
Steven Frears – 'The Queen'
Paul Greengrass – 'United 93'

This is the category I'm most dreading as the powers that be have deigned it Scorsese's year. Don't get me wrong, I love the little fella', but 'The Departed' is hardly Scorsese at the height of his powers. An entertaining thriller that lacks the subtlety and depth of his earlier work, the direction pales in comparison to the work of Greengrass, Frears and Eastwood. That said, Scorsese will win, and who can begrudge him after more than three decades out in the cold?

Who should win: Paul Greengrass
Who will win: Martin Scorsese

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio – 'Blood Diamond'
Ryan Gosling – 'Half Nelson'
Peter O'Toole – 'Venus'
Will Smith – 'The Pursuit of Happyness'
Forest Whitaker – 'The Last King of Scotland'

Weak category this year – superstars DiCaprio and Smith give good if unremarkable performances, Ryan Gosling is great in a film that no one saw and Peter O'Toole is excellent as ever. But Forest Whittaker's stands head and shoulders above the rest of the nominees for his chilling performance as Idi Amin, and for that reason he'll deservedly win.

Who should win: Forest Whitaker
Who will win: Forest Whitaker

Best Actress
Penelope Cruz – 'Volver'
Judi Dench – 'Notes on a Scandal'
Helen Mirren – 'The Queen'
Meryl Streep – 'The Devil Wears Prada'
Kate Winslet – 'Little Children'

Not much to say here really, as bookies have already started paying out on Mirren. She'll win, obviously, but part of me wishes that Penelope Cruz's performance had been in another year as her work in 'Volver' is little short of magic.

Who should win: Penelope Cruz
Who will win: Helen Mirren

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin – 'Little Miss Sunshine'
Jackie Earle Haley – 'Little Children'
Djimon Hounsou – 'Blood Diamond'
Eddie Murphy – 'Dreamgirls'
Mark Wahlberg – 'The Departed'

The Eddie Murphy comeback starts here, though after his victory at the BAFTAs, discount Alan Arkin at your peril. And as for Mark Wahlberg's nomination, who'd have thought that a former funky buncher would be up for an Academy Award. And what's even more surprising is that he actually deserves it!

Who should win: Marky Mark
Who will win: Eddie Murphy

Best Supporting Actress
Rinko Kikuchi - 'Babel'
Cate Blanchett – 'Notes on a Scandal'
Abigail Breslin – 'Little Miss Sunshine'
Jennifer Hudson – 'Dreamgirls'
Adriana Barraza – 'Babel'

Cate Blanchett is great (as usual – yawn), Abigail Breslin is little more than a sympathy nomination for the sweet little girl, Rinko Kikuchi does magnificent work but Jennifer Hudson is quite simply a force of nature in 'Dreamgirls', dominating the screen and acting and singing her co-stars off the screen, and for that reason she's the hot favourite in this category. But if there's any justice, the less glamorous Adriana Barraza will win for her heartbreaking performance in 'Babel'.

Who should win: Adrian Barraza
Who will win: Jennifer Hudson

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