Oscar Odds

Will 'The Aviator' defeat 'Million Dollar Baby'? Can Scorsese overcome the might of Eastwood? And is Jamie Foxx the surest thing in Oscar history?

Feb 23 2005

With the Oscar ceremony fast approaching, we thought we'd give Time Out readers an insight into this year's hot favourites, with a little help from our friendly local bookmaker Ladbrokes.

In the big category – best picture – it looks like being the closest race in years. Not that 'Sideways', 'Finding Neverland' and 'Ray' actually have a chance mind. No, this year it all comes down to two films: 'The Aviator' and 'Million Dollar Baby'.

Ladbrokes have 'The Aviator' taking a marginal lead with odds of 2/5, although 'Million Dollar Baby' isn't far behind at 2/1. But with the 'The Aviator' winning at both the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes in recent weeks, the momentum may well be with the slim favourite come Oscar time.

Best director is a similarly close call, with the same two films duking it out for supremacy. Ladbrokes have 'The Aviator' helmer Martin Scorsese ahead by a nose at 4/6, but 'Million Dollar Baby' director Clint Eastwood is again bringing up the rear with odds of 11/10.

Scorsese may just get the nod, especially as he has never previously won an Oscar (shame on the Academy), but with Eastwood winning the Golden Globe, and rank outsider Mike Leigh victorious at the BAFTAs, this one should also go down to the wire.

The acting awards are a little more clear-cut however, with Jamie Foxx and Hilary Swank dominating their respective categories.

Indeed having won every award going over the course of the last few months, if Jamie Foxx's remarkable 'Ray' performance doesn't bag him the award, Time Out will eat our collective hats. Although at 1/16 he's probably not worth a flutter.

And while Imelda Staunton and Annette Bening have both picked up prizes elsewhere, at 2/7, the best actress statuette currently has Swank's rather unusual name written all over it thanks to her gutsy performance in 'Million Dollar Baby'.

The best supporting actress category is similarly predictable, with Cate Blanchett appearing to be a dead cert at 4/9 for her disturbingly accurate portrayal of Katharine Hepburn in 'The Aviator'.

The race for best supporting actor is a little more interesting however, because although Morgan Freeman's typically wise and principled performance in 'Million Dollar Baby' is the current favourite at 4/9, Thomas Haden Church ('Sideways') at 5/2 and Clive Owen ('Closer') at 11/2 are both close behind.

Indeed this category is perhaps the only genuine three horse race amongst the big awards, although not wishing to sit on the fence, we'll say that big Clive will snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in this one and bring home the gold-plated bacon for Britain.

And with that, we come to the end of our Oscar preview. Several of us are off to the bookies now to put our money where our proverbial mouthes are, but to find out who has won (and whether or not Ladbrokes have lost) the Academy Awards take place on Sunday night, and news of the winners will be on the Time Out film site first thing Monday morning.