Summer is unofficially in season! We might only be halfway through spring, but millions of Australians are suffering through early heatwaves this week. And according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range forecast for summer 2025/26, this is just the beginning of a seriously hot few months ahead.
Right now, Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia are sweating through what could be the hottest October week in nearly 20 years. The rural QLD town of Birdsville hit almost 45 degrees on Monday, while Sydney is forecast to reach a scorching 38 today (Wednesday, October 22). If it's still only spring, what exactly does Mother Nature have in store for us this summer?
The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) long-range forecast predicts a 60 to 80 per cent chance of above-average daytime temperatures from November to January across most of Australia – except eastern NSW and the far north. The likelihood of unusually high maximum temperatures is especially strong in central Victoria and Tasmania. And don’t count on cool nights – higher overnight temperatures are especially likely right across the country.
Looking at rainfall, the next three months are likely to be wetter than average in parts of northern Australia – particularly far north Queensland – and some southern regions. Elsewhere, the BoM reports roughly equal chances of above- or below-average rainfall, with October to April marking the peak time for thunderstorms, floods and cyclones, along with bushfires and heatwaves.
Another key consideration on everyone’s mind is whether Australia is heading into a La Niña weather pattern, typically marked by heavier rainfall, increased cloud cover and a higher likelihood of storms. This month, the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) declared that a La Niña event is underway, but Australia has yet to follow suit, noting that the climate pattern remains in a neutral phase.
According to the BoM’s current model, the Pacific might briefly reach La Niña levels during spring but is expected to return to neutral by summer. In short, if La Niña does develop in Australia, it’s likely to be weak and short-lived.