[category]
[title]
Summer is officially in season – and according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range forecast for summer 2026, this is just the beginning of a seriously hot few months ahead. Let's take a look at the current predictions as of mid-December.
The BoM's latest long-range forecast predicts a 60 to above 80 per cent chance of above-average daytime temperatures from January to March across most of Australia. The likelihood of unusually high maximum temperatures is especially strong in much of Tasmania, and parts of Western Australia and Victoria. And don’t count on cool nights – higher overnight temperatures are especially likely right across the country, especially the northern half.
Looking at rainfall over the next three months, there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall for much of Australia. However, it's likely to be below average (60 to 80 per cent chance) for scattered parts of Western Australia and southern Tasmania, and above average for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and eastern Queensland.
It's important to stay mindful that October to April marks the peak time for thunderstorms, floods and cyclones in Australia, along with bushfires and heatwaves. Another key consideration on everyone’s mind is La Niña, typically marked by heavier rainfall, increased cloud cover and a higher likelihood of storms. The BoM confirmed the weather pattern was underway in the Pacific Ocean in late November – almost two months after the United States declared it. However, it's expected to be weak and short-lived.