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There’s a high chance you’ll end up chatting about the weather to break the ice before your next business meeting, so it’s time to study up on what Mother Nature has in store. Earlier this month, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) confirmed that El Niño is underway in Australia, with scientists predicting it could be one of the strongest in a century. Driven by an extended period of above-average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, this marks the first time the volatile weather pattern has been declared active in almost three years. For the everyday Aussie, it means we need to prepare for reduced rainfall alongside hotter, drier conditions.
This global climate event coincides with an alarming surge in Earth’s average sea surface temperatures, which rose to 20.8 degrees on Sunday, June 21 – the highest ever recorded for this time of year, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The record-breaking milestone was backed by data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which logged sea surface temps of 20.9 degrees on the same day. To put that into perspective, that is almost two degrees higher than the 1991–2020 baseline average!
How will El Niño affect Australia’s weather?
From July to September, the BoM’s long-range forecast predicts reduced rainfall across much of eastern and southern Australia, alongside hotter-than-average temperatures in all areas except the north.
Scientists have warned that the impacts of El Niño are becoming harder to predict due to climate change. However, past cycles have reduced rainfall across winter and spring, particularly in the eastern half of Australia, while dialing up daytime temperatures – a combination that increases the risk of heatwaves and bushfires.
Past El Niño years have also brought clearer skies, which can increase frost risk overnight. This can instantly freeze vulnerable crops right before harvest, making it devastating news for the nation's farmers.
When will El Niño end in Australia?
Current forecasts suggest this El Niño cycle is likely to persist well into the latter half of 2026, typically peaking in summer before weakening in the first quarter of 2027. You can read more about what the BoM has to say here.
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