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This month, it’s felt like the UK weather has been all over the place. One moment it’s hammering down with rain, the next it feels hot enough to get a tan, the next we’re wrapping ourselves back up in a warm coat.
Last week, the nation bathed in the warmest weather we’ve had so far this year, with London reaching a balmy 26.6 degrees. It didn’t last long. Things have cooled down significantly since then, and temperatures are set to stay mild for at least the next week. However, there’s a huge weather event brewing that could crank the heat up later in the year.
Experts have predicted that we are heading for a rare ‘super El Niño’, which could bring hotter weather to the UK this summer. Here’s what you need to know.
What is a super El Niño?
El Niño is a weather pattern that happens every few years, characterised by warmer temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and changes in atmospheric pressure. It causes an increase in temperatures around the globe – warmer water spreads further, stays closer to the surface, releases more heat into the atmosphere and creates wetter weather and warmer air.
A super El Niño is a particularly strong El Niño when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise at least 1.5C above normal. It’s relatively rare but it can drastically alter global atmospheric patterns and lead to extreme weather like droughts and flooding.
The El Niño is expected to kick in later in 2026 and last into 2027, bringing us hotter temperatures than normal.
What does it mean for the UK?
Experts say that the super El Niño could put 2027 on track to surpass 2024 and be the hottest year on record. In 2024, the global average surface temperature reached 1.55C above the pre-industrial average.
Higher summer temperatures in the UK are likely however the Met Office explains that, because El Niño happens thousands of miles from northwest Europe, its influence on our weather is indirect. It says: ‘The UK’s weather is shaped by many competing factors that affect the Atlantic jet stream and other large‑scale atmospheric patterns. As a result, it is too early to draw firm conclusions about what this developing El Niño might mean for future UK seasons.’
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