Can air travel get any worse?

If you have upcoming travel plans - particularly over the peak Northern Hemisphere summer period between June and August - you’d be wise to approach overseas travel with a little extra caution right now.  

From rising fuel costs and restricted airspaces to constrained flight capacity and operational bottlenecks, global aviation is currently facing multiple disruption factors. WTTC estimates that 526,000 passengers are not travelling daily due to reduced flights in the Middle East, impacting connectivity between key regions such as Asia, Europe, and Africa.

For South African travellers, the knock-on effects are already becoming visible: soaring ticket prices, longer routes and limited seat availability. 

And according to aviation and travel experts, the situation may still worsen before it stabilises. 

The eye of the disruption storm

The current disruption began on 28 February, when escalating conflict in the Middle East forced the closure of key airspace corridors. The impact was immediate: three of South Africa’s most important long-haul connectors – Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways – were forced to suspend or reroute flights. Thousands of travellers were stranded in major transit hubs, including Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, unsure how or when they would get home.

Nearly a month later, flights are slowly returning, but the system remains fragile. Airlines are now relying on temporary “dedicated flight corridors” – controlled air routes coordinated by aviation authorities that allow aircraft to safely navigate around conflict zones rather than flying directly over them.  

These detours mean longer flight paths, increased fuel burn and more congestion in the airspace that remains open – all of which adds cost and complexity to global travel. 

The petrol price is expected to be hiked by an estimated R6 this coming Wednesday, amid wider inflationary pressures, with the president appointing a ministerial task team to assess the situation. Fares for international travel continue to spike, with travellers reporting that an R18k flight via Dubai to a destination like Japan now easily costs in the region of R70k to reroute.

Airlines are gradually restoring services to South Africa. Emirates Airlines has resumed operations and is progressively rebuilding capacity, currently operating two daily flights from Johannesburg and one daily flight from Cape Town, with plans to restart three weekly flights from Durban.  

Qatar Airways has also begun restoring its global network, publishing a revised schedule valid until mid-April that adds additional frequencies to more than 90 destinations across its network.   

But airlines warn that schedules remain fluid and subject to change as the geopolitical situation evolves.

Demand is still strong, but seats are scarce

Despite the disruption, travel demand itself has not disappeared. According to Herman Heunes, GM of Corporate Traveller, travellers are increasingly turning to alternative routes via hubs such as Addis Ababa, Singapore and European gateways.

Corporate Traveller’s booking data shows sharp increases in demand for airlines, including:

• Ethiopian Airlines (+100%)
• British Airways (+100%)
• Virgin Atlantic (+303%)
• Lufthansa (+103%)
• KLM (+114%)
• Singapore Airlines (+109%)
• Cathay Pacific (+106%)

But the surge in demand is colliding with limited seat availability.  Linden Birns, aviation expert and founder of Plane Talking, says that even amid the disruptions, international flights into South Africa are still departing with load factors in the 90% range.

“Demand hasn’t gone away,” he explains. “It’s just finding other ways of trying to get there.”   

Jet fuel skyrockets by over 140%  

Fuel costs are another major pressure point. Global oil prices have climbed sharply in recent weeks, with Brent crude rising from around $69 per barrel earlier this year to roughly $115. At the same time, the weakening rand - moving from roughly R15.85 to over R17 to the US dollar - is increasing the cost of importing fuel.

Jet fuel prices at South African airports have surged. “At Cape Town, jet fuel prices increased by more than 140% in a single month,” Birns says.

Fuel typically accounts for 20–30% of airline operating costs, making this spike extremely significant. South Africa is particularly exposed because the country relies heavily on imported fuel, with key coastal refineries currently offline or operating at reduced capacity. Airlines can absorb some short-term increases, Birns says - but not indefinitely. “Eventually those costs have to be passed on to travellers,” he adds. 

Domestic airline FlySafair has already announced a temporary fuel surcharge on new bookings, effective between 12 March and 12 May.

Avoiding restricted airspace is also forcing airlines to fly longer routes. Those longer routes mean aircraft burn more fuel, which further increases operational costs.

Birns notes that even small inefficiencies can quickly become expensive in aviation. “At current fuel prices, an aircraft like a 737 or A320 burns about $82 a minute,” he explains. That means delays caused by congestion, holding patterns or operational bottlenecks can quickly add thousands of dollars to a single flight.

And aviation is an industry where everything depends on precise coordination. Aircraft turnaround times are described as “a choreographed ballet,” as refuelling, catering, cleaning, baggage handling, and passenger boarding must happen within tightly scheduled windows.

When disruptions occur - whether due to airspace closures, infrastructure constraints or delays - the ripple effects can cascade through the entire system, affecting baggage transfers, cargo logistics and onward connections, says Birns.

War is a universal exclusion in travel insurance

The crisis has also raised questions about travel insurance coverage. According to Jason Veitch, Business Head for Accident & Health at Santam Travel Insurance, war is a universal exclusion across travel insurance policies globally.

“War exclusions exist because the scale of conflict can affect hundreds of thousands of travellers simultaneously – and no insurance pool can absorb that,” Veitch says.  

However, other benefits remain in place. Medical cover, luggage protection and other policy benefits still apply, and Veitch stresses that medical emergencies remain the primary reason travellers should take out insurance.  

What travellers should expect next?

Demand for travel remains strong. But the pathways enabling that travel are narrower, more complex and more expensive right now. For South African travellers, the coming months are likely to bring the following challenges.  

Higher ticket prices

With jet fuel prices surging and airlines flying longer routes, airfare inflation is inevitable. But there are ways to soften the impact. 

• Book earlier than usual - Flights are filling quickly because capacity is constrained. Booking several months in advance remains one of the best ways to avoid price spikes.
• Consider midweek departures - Flights departing on Tuesdays and Wednesdays often remain cheaper than peak weekend departures.
• Look beyond the Gulf hubs - With routes through the Middle East constrained, fares on those routes have surged. Travellers may find better pricing through alternative hubs.
• Use fare alerts and flexible date searches - Tools such as Google Flights, Skyscanner or airline alerts can help identify fare dips when airlines release additional inventory.
• Mix airlines if necessary - Booking two one-way tickets on different airlines can sometimes unlock cheaper routing combinations.

Limited flight availability

Because airlines such as Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways account for a large share of South Africa’s long-haul traffic, travellers will need to increasingly look beyond the Gulf carriers. Alternative hubs currently seeing increased traffic include:

• Addis Ababa via Ethiopian Airlines
• European gateways such as London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Paris, but even transit visas remain a concern
• Singapore via Singapore Airlines

These routes may require an additional connection but could provide more reliable availability.

Longer travel times: plan connections carefully

With flights detouring around restricted airspace, travel times are increasing. Travellers can reduce stress by:

• Choosing longer connection windows - Minimum connection times may no longer be realistic during disruptions. Aim for 2 to 3 hours between flights, where possible. 
• Avoiding tight overnight connections - If the first flight is delayed, missing the last flight of the day can create major delays.
• Choosing hubs with strong recovery options - Major hubs such as Frankfurt, Amsterdam or Singapore typically have multiple onward flights, making it easier to recover from delays.

Greater risk of delays or rerouting

Disruptions remain likely while airlines adapt to changing airspace restrictions. Travellers should consider:

• Travel with hand luggage only - This reduces the risk of bags missing tight connections.
• Downloading airline apps -  Real-time notifications often appear there before they reach airport screens.
• Arriving earlier at airports -  Operational disruptions can create longer check-in and boarding queues.
• Checking visa requirements for transit airports -  In case rerouting forces an unexpected overnight stay.

The global aviation system is adapting quickly, as it has before (remember Covid!) but the environment remains unpredictable. For now, flexibility, careful planning and early booking may be travellers’ best tools for navigating an increasingly uncertain aviation landscape.