Every December, Americans ask the same question with equal parts optimism and denial: will there actually be snow on the ground Christmas morning? For 2025, the answer is shaping up to be a classic weather cliff-hanger, with a late December storm and a surge of mild air both angling to control the holiday forecast.
Early December brought cold temperatures and plenty of snow, which briefly blanketed more than 45 percent of the country. But that wintry pattern isn’t sticking around. Milder Pacific air will move east ahead of Christmas, warming temperatures and melting snow across much of the central and eastern U.S., which will definitely dash more than a few dreams of snow globes.
Officially, a “white Christmas” requires at least one inch of snow on the ground at 7am local time on December 25, whether it fell overnight or has been lingering for days. By that standard, only certain regions are feeling confident this year. The central and northern Rockies are virtually guaranteed to wake up white, especially at higher elevations in Wyoming, Montana, Utah and Colorado. The Cascades and Sierra Nevada are also solid bets, as are areas downwind of the Great Lakes, where lake-effect snow is basically unavoidable.
Farther east, higher elevations of the Appalachians and parts of interior New England still have a fighting chance due to colder air that could help preserve existing snowpack. Coastal cities, though, will be far less lucky. Along much of the I-95 corridor, including the mid-Atlantic and southern New England, warming temperatures will turn recent snowfall into a memory.
There is still one wildcard: a storm is forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S. in the days leading up to Christmas. If its track shifts north, it could deliver fresh snow to parts of the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, especially north of Interstate 80. A more southerly path would mean rain for many, though that could end with a few festive flurries.
In other words, some Americans will wake up to snow on Christmas morning. Many won’t—but for a few lucky places, the answer may not be clear until Christmas Eve.