2015 Tony Awards predictions

Steven Boyer, Hand to God

Bradley Cooper, The Elephant Man

Ben Miles, Wolf Hall: Parts One & Two

Bill Nighy, Skylight

Alex Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

SET FOR GLORY: The race will come down to two brilliant performances by actors playing mentally disturbed teenagers, Steven Boyer (Hand to God) and Alex Sharp (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time). Sharp’s moving, detailed depiction of a kid on the autism spectrum offers more uplift.

SET TO BE ROBBED: Wonderful as Sharp is, Boyer’s virtuoso double performance, as a Texas boy and his demonic hand puppet, is one for the ages. Can we pray for a tie?

Geneva Carr, Hand to God

Helen Mirren, The Audience

Elisabeth Moss, The Heidi Chronicles

Carey Mulligan, Skylight

Ruth Wilson, Constellations

SET FOR GLORY: Tony loves a dame, and Helen Mirren rules the boards as a rock-steady Queen Elizabeth II in The Audience. This is her third outing on Broadway (she was nominated twice before but didn’t win), so it’s sure to be the charm.

SET TO BE ROBBED: Mirren’s countrywomen, Carey Mulligan (Skylight) and Ruth Wilson (Constellations), matched her as equally conflicted women. All three deserve it.

Michael Cerveris, Fun Home

Robert Fairchild, An American in Paris
Brian d’Arcy James, Something Rotten!
Ken Watanabe, The King and I

Tony Yazbeck, On the Town 

SET FOR GLORY: His tortured character, a closeted martinet of a father who cruises for hookups, is not pretty, but Fun Home’s Michael Cerveris plays Bruce Bechdel with humor, wit and tremendous humanity.

SET TO BE ROBBED: Nobody. Cerveris’s portrayal got even more layered after the show’s jump from the Public to Broadway.

Kristin Chenoweth, On the Twentieth Century
Leanne Cope, An American in Paris

Beth Malone, Fun Home
Kelli O’Hara, The King and I

Chita Rivera, The Visit

SET FOR GLORY: Kelli O’Hara has been nominated for six Tonys but has yet to win. There’s a feeling that she’s due, and her lovely work in The King and I provides a respectable hook to hang that hat on.

SET TO BE ROBBED: It’s Kristin Chenoweth’s time to shine, too—she’s never won a Tony for Best Actress, and her star turn in On the Twentieth Century is a jaw-dropping blast of musical-comedy dynamite. In an ideal world, she and O’Hara would split it.

Annaleigh Ashford, You Can’t Take It with You
Patricia Clarkson, The Elephant Man

Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall: Parts One & Two

Sarah Stiles, Hand to God

Julie White, Airline Highway

SET FOR GLORY: Tony tends to favor shows that are still running, but You Can’t Take It with You’s Annaleigh Ashford will be an exception.

SET TO BE ROBBED: All is right in Tony town for this one. Even in the bright cast, Ashford stole the show with effortless comic aplomb.

Matthew Beard, Skylight

K. Todd Freeman, Airline Highway

Richard McCabe, The Audience
Alessandro Nivola, The Elephant Man
Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall: Parts One & Two

Micah Stock, It’s Only a Play

SET FOR GLORY: Wolf Hall: Parts One & Two’s Nathaniel Parker already nabbed an Olivier for his vivid portrayal of serial husband Henry VIII as a jolly menace, but it’s time to make more room on the mantel (so to speak).

SET TO BE ROBBED: None of these dudes. Parker ought to leave with the top prize. 

Victoria Clark, Gigi

Judy Kuhn, Fun Home
Sydney Lucas, Fun Home

Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I
Emily Skeggs, Fun Home

SET FOR GLORY: This category belongs to Fun Home, and among those three out of five candidates, the sentimental vote goes to stalwart Judy Kuhn (nearly 30 years after a nom for Les Misérables).

SET TO BE ROBBED: We don’t generally love giving awards to child actors (we’re jerks, we know), but fellow Fun-ster, 11-year-old Sydney Lucas, deserves it for her fresh and delightful turn. 

Christian Borle, Something Rotten!

Andy Karl, On the Twentieth Century
Brad Oscar, Something Rotten!

Brandon Uranowitz, An American in Paris

Max von Essen, An American in Paris

SET FOR GLORY: This category will be where voters show some love for Something Rotten! We expect it to be (Brad) Oscar night at the Tonys.

An American in Paris, Craig Lucas
Fun Home, Lisa Kron
Something Rotten!, Karey Kirkpatrick and John O’Farrell
The Visit, Terrence McNally

SET TO BE ROBBED: Fun Home is by far the deepest and richest candidate in the bunch, and Kron’s previous work (including Well and In the Wake) gives her extra credibility.

SET TO BE ROBBED: Not applicable here. To read Alison Bechdel’s illustrated memoir, on which Fun Home is based, is to marvel at how smartly and sensitively Kron has shaped it into a musical.

Fun Home, Music: Jeanine Tesori; 
Lyrics: Lisa Kron
The Last Ship, Music & Lyrics: Sting
Something Rotten!, Music & Lyrics: Wayne Kirkpatrick and Karey Kirkpatrick
The Visit, Music: John Kander; 
Lyrics: Fred Ebb

SET FOR GLORY: Kron and Tesori’s chamber score for Fun Home is plangent, witty and powerful.

SET TO BE ROBBED: No one. Although Sting’s skillful debut, The Last Ship, shouldn’t be pooh-poohed, Fun Home hits deepest.

Stephen Daldry, Skylight

Marianne Elliott, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Scott Ellis, You Can’t Take It with You

Jeremy Herrin, Wolf Hall Parts One & Two

Moritz von Stuelpnagel, Hand to God

SET FOR GLORY: When voters weigh all elements, they’ll find that Marianne Elliott’s balance of complex design and equally layered emotional terrain in Curious Incident deserves top honor.

SET TO BE ROBBED: Scott Ellis of You Can’t Take It with You did a bang-up job with casting and tone. Sometimes great direction is simply staying out of the way.

Sam Gold, Fun Home

Casey Nicholaw, Something Rotten!

John Rando, On the Town

Bartlett Sher, The King and I

Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris

SET FOR GLORY: Ballet master Christopher Wheeldon will surely win for the An American in Paris choreography, but he’s also likely to pick up Best Direction honors for his fluid, often ravishing staging of an old-fashioned show.

SET TO BE ROBBED: It may not be as showy as the work of the other nominees, but Sam Gold’s helming of Fun Home is a masterful combination of clarity, complexity, fluidity and surprise.

Joshua Bergasse, On the Town

Christopher Gattelli, The King and I

Scott Graham & Steven Hoggett for Frantic Assembly, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Casey Nicholaw, Something Rotten!

Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris

SET FOR GLORY: Set for glory: The biggest lock of the night is Christopher Wheeldon’s gorgeous ballet for An American in Paris, a throwback to the heyday of dance auteurs like Jerome Robbins and by all accounts the highlight of the show.

Christopher Austin, Don Sebesky, Bill Elliott, An American in Paris

John Clancy, Fun Home

Larry Hochman, Something Rotten!

Rob Mathes, The Last Ship

SET FOR GLORY: It took three guys to re-orchestrate George Gershwin’s 1928 symphonic poem An American in Paris (and a dozen-plus other tunes) for a glorious-sounding Broadway pit, and they all deserve the gold. C’est magnifique—or, as the Americans say: ’S Wonderful!

SET TO BE ROBBED: Rob Mathes was tasked with imbuing Sting’s unique pop-folk sound with orchestral color and variety. They built a sleek, sturdy vessel together. 

Bunny Christie and Finn Ross, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Bob Crowley, Skylight

Christopher Oram, Wolf Hall Parts One & Two

David Rockwell, You Can’t Take It with You

SET FOR GLORY: The LED and video-saturated grid of Curious Incident is a fascinating character itself, a playground (or prison) for the drama’s ultra-sensitive protagonist, a brilliant teen on the autism spectrum.

Bob Crowley and 59 Productions, An American in Paris

David Rockwell, On the Twentieth Century

Michael Yeargan, The King and I

David Zinn, Fun Home

SET FOR GLORY: Bob Crowley is a master, and his striking painterly backdrops for An American in Paris are a major element of the show’s success. He earned a rare Special Citation from the New York Drama Critics’ Circle this year, and he’ll take the Tony, too.

SET TO BE ROBBED: David Zinn’s evocative, continually surprising designs for Fun Home make the most of Circle in the Square’s tricky theater-in-the-round setup, and help the musical play even better than it did Off Broadway.

Bob Crowley, The Audience

Jane Greenwood, You Can’t Take It with You

Christopher Oram, Wolf Hall Parts One & Two

David Zinn, Airline Highway

SET FOR GLORY: Sometimes a designer wins this category on the basis of quick changes (such as A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder last year). But Bob Crowley’s impeccably sourced and executed frocks for Queen Elizabeth II not only shuttled the monarch back and forth in time, they ferried the audience, too.

Gregg Barnes, Something Rotten!

Bob Crowley, An American in Paris

William Ivey Long, On the Twentieth Century

Catherine Zuber, The King and I

SET FOR GLORY: The King and I has a massive cast, and Zuber’s elegant work more than meets the challenge of outfitting them in royal period Asian splendor.

Paule Constable, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Paule Constable and David Plater, Wolf Hall Parts One & Two

Natasha Katz, Skylight

Japhy Weideman, Airline Highway

SET FOR GLORY: Constable’s lighting helps give Curious Incident its visual wow, and sharpens our awareness of the main character’s confusion.

SET TO BE ROBBED: Constable also lit the first part of Wolf Hall, with David Plater lighting the second; their work is key in creating discrete senses of space on the spare set.

Donald Holder, The King and I

Natasha Katz, An American in Paris

Ben Stanton, Fun Home

Japhy Weideman, The Visit

SET FOR GLORY: This race is actually a hard one to call—there’s so much gorgeous illumination to be found in big, bright spectacles such as An American in Paris, or a shadowy chamber work like Fun Home. Ultimately, we think the painterly, swoon-making visuals of The King and I will triumph.