Skiers and snowboarders around the country are eagerly anticipating the start of ski season and hoping for plenty of snow. The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a snowy winter ahead, but accurately predicting weather conditions far in advance can be difficult, weather forecasters can say one thing for sure: an El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen through ski season.
What does this mean for skiers this winter? Again, it can be hard to predict. An El Niño means that surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are warmer than average. As a result, areas will see increased precipitation, pressure variations, and a southern-trending jet stream that will affect weather patterns.
For New England, this could mean a cold and snowy winter, but some forecasters say the region could see warmer and drier weather. A strong El Niño during the 2009-10 ski season, New England saw significant snowfall as early as October, so this winter could be a good one.
The El Niño-influenced jet stream could mean above-average snowfall for ski areas in the southern Rockies and Utah, including Taos, Telluride, Crested Butte and Park City. It’s no guarantee—The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts just average snowfall — but other forecasts look promising.
California, which saw record snowfall last winter, is likely to get a repeat this year, and the odds of increased precipitation get higher as you look toward ski resorts like Mammoth and Tahoe ski areas.
Like New England, the Pacific Northwest forecast could go either way. A strong El Niño during the 2015-16 ski season brought above-average snowfall.
El Niño will influence the weather patterns that skiers are tracking, it's just one factor among many. Local climate conditions, altitude and geographical location also significantly influence the amount of snow each ski area will get. Though El Niño will affect conditions, skiers should keep an eye on the forecast and—especially if you have flexibility—wait until the last minute to take that big ski trip.