Here's the official Japan cherry blossom forecast for 2026 – updated Jan 22

It might still be winter, but the arrival of the first sakura forecast gives those dreaming of cherry blossoms and warmer days something to look forward to. On January 22, the Japan Meteorological Corporation released its third cherry blossom forecast of 2026, giving us a good idea of when sakura season is expected to begin.

The JMC forecast predicts the first flowering and full bloom dates of the popular somei yoshino variety of cherry blossoms for around 1,000 destinations across Japan. This highly anticipated forecast is based on temperature patterns from this past autumn and has been released slightly earlier than usual. The agency is also incorporating artificial intelligence to provide earlier dates, helping people plan their sakura trips more effectively.

In Tokyo, the forecast has shifted by a couple days with cherry blossoms now predicted to start flowering on March 22, with full bloom expected around March 29.

As for other popular destinations, Kyoto is expected to see initial bloom by March 25, reaching full bloom by April 2. Sapporo is predicted to start flowering from April 26, with full bloom by April 30, while Fukuoka is expected to see flowers by March 22, reaching full bloom by March 30.

We'll continue to keep you posted as the forecast changes. The next update from the JMC is scheduled for February 5. In the meantime, you can still enjoy many of Tokyo’s spectacular illuminations and fun skating rinks.

For a closer look at the forecast, visit the website.

This article was published on December 19 2025 and updated on January 22 2026.

More from Time Out Tokyo

BTS announce Tokyo dates for their comeback tour – here’s how to get tickets

Netflix’s ‘Squid Game’ is coming to life in Tokyo this January

Disney has released its 2026 cherry blossom collection

Ikea is closing its Harajuku and Shinjuku locations in February

Japan to lose all of its pandas by the end of January

Want to be the first to know what’s cool in Tokyo? Sign up to our newsletter for the latest updates from Tokyo and Japan.