When it comes to relaxing vacations, there’s nothing quite like lounging on an idyllic beach, listening to the sounds of the waves and seabirds. But some of the world’s most beautiful beaches are in danger, with natural shoreline retreat exacerbated by climate change. A recent study, in fact, suggests that nearly half of the beaches on Earth could disappear by 2100.
Here’s how shoreline retreat works: as the sand at the front of the beach retreats, the back of the beach also shifts and builds up so that the overall size of the sandy area remains about the same. However—especially on popular tourist beaches—humans have built up that back area, meaning that the beaches will actually disappear.
HawaiianIslands.com crunched the numbers to find out which popular beaches worldwide will experience the most impact from this rapid retreat. The site analyzed European Commission data that estimates how shorelines worldwide will change by 2100. That data was used to calculate the average change of shorelines at the 10 most-reviewed beaches in each country on Tripadvisor. These numbers were then used to identify the 20 tourist beaches worldwide that will change the most by 2100.
Here in the U.S., Clearwater Beach in Longboat Key, Florida is expected to shrink by 634.5 feet. It’s the only U.S. beach in the top 20 most-impacted tourist beaches, coming in at number 18. North American beaches tend to be less natural and more managed, slowing some of the retreat. However, according to the study, the best way to mitigate increased beach retreat is to reduce greenhouse gasses, noting that even a moderate amount of emission reduction could slow it by up to 40 percent.
The beach that is predicted to experience the biggest impact by 2100 is Landmark Beach in Lagos, Nigeria, set to lose 3,012.8 feet of shoreline. Find the full breakdown of impacted tourist beaches here.