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The Long Island Rail Road may be headed toward its most chaotic weekend since the dial-up internet era and Governor Kathy Hochul is now openly telling commuters to prepare accordingly: if the trains stop running, you might just need to stay home.
Speaking Wednesday at a press conference at Jones Beach, Hochul warned that the MTA’s backup transportation plans simply cannot absorb the hundreds of thousands of commuters who rely on the LIRR every weekday. The strike, which could begin as soon as Saturday, involves five unions representing a majority of the railroad’s workforce and threatens to completely shut down service on the nation’s busiest commuter rail system.
“I want to be clear that these buses will not be able to replace full Long Island Rail Road service,” Hochul said. “That’s why the MTA has encouraged employers and employees on Long Island to plan for work-from-home early next week if a strike occurs.”
The MTA has spent the last several weeks preparing what is essentially a transit emergency plan for Long Island. If workers walk off the job, the agency says it will deploy as many as 275 shuttle buses to move commuters between key LIRR stations and subway hubs in Queens. Buses would run from stations including Hicksville, Mineola and Bay Shore to the Howard Beach–JFK station on the A train, while riders from Huntington and Ronkonkoma would be directed toward the F train at Jamaica–179th Street.
But even MTA officials acknowledge that the plan is more like a lifeboat than a replacement fleet.
The LIRR typically carries roughly 270,000 to 300,000 riders every weekday. Hochul noted that the buses are really intended for essential workers and warned that a prolonged strike could produce severe traffic gridlock across Long Island by Monday morning.
Historically, the railroad’s importance is difficult to overstate. As Gothamist noted, a 1965 state report famously calculated that replacing peak-hour LIRR traffic with cars would require the equivalent of five additional Long Island Expressways.
The core dispute comes down to money. The unions are demanding a 5% raise in the final year of their contract amid rising living costs on Long Island, while the MTA has largely held to a 3% offer, arguing that meeting the unions’ demands could force fare hikes, service cuts and layoffs. MTA officials have warned fares could jump as much as 8% next year under the unions’ proposal.
Negotiations were still ongoing on Thursday and both sides indicated there had been at least some movement toward a deal. But with the strike deadline rapidly approaching, officials are increasingly preparing commuters for the possibility that Monday morning may involve a laptop instead of a train platform.