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Just as we were starting to regain feeling in our toes, the weather gods may be winding up for an encore.
On the heels of the city’s biggest snowfall in five years, forecasters are tracking another potential coastal storm that could impact New York City this weekend—emphasis on could. The system is expected to develop rapidly off the Southeast coast, but its eventual track will determine whether we see more snow, just some wind and surf drama or a whole lot of nothing.
What meteorologists are confident about: a strong storm is likely to form Saturday somewhere off the Carolinas, powered by an upper-level disturbance diving south from Canada. Arctic air is already locked in place across the East Coast and this system is expected to reinforce it, which means our current run of subfreezing days isn’t going anywhere anytime soon
If the storm edges closer to the coast, it could tap into that frigid air and deliver snow to parts of the tri-state area. If it stays farther offshore, the city may dodge meaningful precipitation altogether—and that’s where things get fuzzy.
Right now, forecast models are split. Some keep the storm far enough out to sea to spare New York City from snowfall but others show snow reaching coastal New Jersey and Long Island late Saturday into Sunday. A shift of just 50 to 100 miles in either direction could change everything, from rain versus snow to whether the city sees accumulation at all.
If the storm hugs the coast, we should expect a messy mix of rain near the shoreline, snow inland and plenty of wind. If it tracks just offshore (but not too far), forecasters say an all-snow scenario is still on the table, even at the coast. A much farther offshore path would lock in cold air but keep most of the moisture out to sea.
One impact already looking more likely: rough coastal conditions. With the storm deepening offshore and the full Snow Moon arriving Sunday, high surf could cause minor coastal flooding and beach erosion along south- and east-facing shorelines.
This is very much a “wait and see” situation. And while meteorologists are watching closely, it’s still too early for definitive calls—or snow panic grocery runs. For now, assume the cold sticks around, Sunday remains a question mark and winter isn’t done with us just yet.