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New Yorkers may worry about rising rent or rising tempers on the subway, but they might want to add rising water to the list. A new study published in Nature Cities shows that the city is literally sinking, at rates that could spell long-term trouble for infrastructure, flood zones and real estate alike.
The culprit is a slow-moving combination of climate change, groundwater depletion and good old-fashioned urban weight. Researchers found that 98-percent of NYC’s land is subsiding, with parts—like LaGuardia Airport—sinking at rates greater than 5 millimeters per year. While that might sound minor, the study notes that even small shifts in elevation can lead to increased flood risks and damage to buildings over time.
In fact, New York accounts for over a quarter of the U.S. population currently living on subsiding land. More than 8.7 million people—essentially the entire city—are at some level of exposure. Researchers say NYC joins cities like Houston, Chicago and Los Angeles in facing this slow-burning urban hazard, with more than 29,000 buildings nationally sitting in areas at high or very high risk of subsidence damage.
What will happen to NYC if sea levels rise?
The intersection of land sinking and rising sea levels isn’t just a doomsday headline—it’s a real risk. As the ground drops, even slowly, it lowers the city’s natural defense against coastal flooding. That means storm surges will push further inland, flood maps will have to be redrawn, and low-lying infrastructure—including transportation hubs and waterfront neighborhoods—will face heightened vulnerability.
Since 2000, New York and seven other subsiding U.S. cities have experienced more than 90 flood events. Combine that with predictions for more extreme weather due to climate change, and it’s clear: water is coming, and our city is getting lower.
Can we stop NYC from sinking?
Not entirely, but we can slow it down. The study emphasizes that while some subsidence is natural (thanks to glacial and tectonic shifts), a large portion is driven by human behavior, especially groundwater extraction. Better water management, reinforced infrastructure, and strategic urban planning can help mitigate damage.
And yes, there’s hope: Other cities, like San Diego and Memphis, have shown that proactive aquifer policies and better land-use planning can prevent the worst. As the study puts it, “mitigation and adaptation” are the name of the game.
But we'd better move fast—before our skyline ends up too close to sea level for comfort.