When President Donald Trump recently labeled Chicago “the most dangerous city in the world,” complete with promises of deploying the National Guard, it felt less like the voice of a president and more like a storyline for cable news ratings. But behind the overheated headlines lies a more nuanced narrative, one where Chicago’s ravaged South and West sides stubbornly wrestle with gun violence, even as the broader city experiences one of its sharpest crime declines in years.
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Trump’s theatrics (calling the city a “murder capital” and threatening military intervention) paint Chicago as a spectacle of chaos. Yet the data tells a different story. In 2024, Chicago’s homicide rate of 17.5 per 100,000 lagged far behind several Republican-led cities, including Jackson, Memphis, St. Louis and Birmingham, according to an in-depth analysis by The Guardian. Fact-checking outfits and experts point out that violent crime has dropped significantly: Shootings are down about 38-percent, and homicides are down 32- percent in early 2025 compared to last year.
It’s not that Chicago is without problems. The carnage of Labor Day weekend was a grim reminder, with eight killed and 50 wounded across 37 shootings. But Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson bristle at the notion of a militarized solution. Pritzker has been showing off South Side revitalization projects, including art studios, wine bars and other small businesses, arguing that community investment is what keeps neighborhoods safe. Johnson echoes that, saying public safety thrives when backed by housing, education and mental health. Not armored vehicles on the streets.
So how murderous is Chicago, a hundred years after Al Capone? Let's look at the statistics The Guardian compiled: Chicago "ranked 37th in homicide rate in 2024 for cities larger than 50,000 residents in the United States. For cities with more than 100,000 residents, it placed 14th. This year, it is likely to slide farther down the list, even as violence falls to 60-year lows."
The bottom line: Chicago remains a city that is, yes, often plagued by violence, and there's still plenty of work to do. But the murder capital of the world? Hardly.