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[title]Looking back on the 2025–26 Broadway season, it's clear that the season itself was obsessed with looking back. Revivals dominated the year, whether of musicals like Cats and Ragtime or plays like Death of a Salesman and Becky Shaw. Conversely, there was a notable dearth of new musicals: only six in total, of which five were adapted from movies or TV shows. But that doesn't make predicting the Tony Awards any easier than usual. In fact, this year's competition includes extremely close races for several of the Tonys' biggest awards, such as Best Musical, Best Revival of a Musical and Best Actor in a Play. But we have studied the 2026 Tony nominations (not to mention our own TONY* nominations) and canvassed multiple voters, so now we are ready to make our final calls. Remember, of course, that these are our predictions, not our choices, and we may well be guessing wrong. But here’s who we think will win when Pink hosts Broadway’s biggest night on June 7, 2026.
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RECOMMENDED: Complete guide to the 2026 Tony Awards
BEST MUSICAL
The Lost Boys
Schmigadoon
Titaníque
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
The race: Best Musical is the Tonys' biggest prize, and this year it's also the biggest question mark. It has been a notably thin season for new musicals on Broadway; after two seasons in a row with more than a dozen new musicals apiece, the 2025–26 crop offered only six, which is why there are only four nominees instead of the usual five. (Several shows that couldn't find oxygen last year, such as Real Women Have Curves and Dead Outlaw and Boop!, would be front-runners this season had they only waited.) While Titaníque and Two Strangers have their fans, both are too lightweight to win this award, so the decision comes down to The Lost Boys versus Schmigadoon! While the buzz on the rialto has favored the latter, we think The Lost Boys will pull out a win in the tradition of 2024's The Outsiders. The Best Musical award is for the totality of a production, not just its writing—which has categories of its own—and the Tonys are in large part about branding. The Lost Boys represents a more ambitious vision for modern Broadway than Schmigadoon!'s bright nostalgia.
BEST PLAY
The Balusters by David Lindsay-Abaire
Giant by Mark Rosenblatt
Liberation by Bess Wohl
Little Bear Ridge Road by Samuel D. Hunter
The race: Timeliness is on the side of Giant, which examines the antisemitism of the British kid-lit titan Roald Dahl in ways that touch obliquely on the current resurgence of anti-Jewish sentiment throughout the world. But Liberation, Bess Wohl's complex (self-)reflection on 1970s feminism, also has specific political resonance today, and although it closed months ago, it is riding the momentum of recently winning the 2026 Pulitzer Prize for Drama. And a win for Wohl would be a satisfyingly metatheatrical moment: Shockingly, it would make her only the second American woman in the nearly 80-year history of the Tonys ever to win Best Play by herself. The first? Wendy Wasserstein in 1989 for The Heidi Chronicles, another Pulitzer-winning survey of second-wave feminism and its discontents. (The French playwright Yasmina Reza has won Best Play twice, for Art and God of Carnage; Frances Goodrich shared it for her 1955 co-adaption of The Diary of Anne Frank.) We give Liberation the edge. Given the dominance of revivals in rest of the nominations, however, this might be one of those rare years in which the Best Play winner—like Clybourne Park in 2012 and Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike in 2013—wins no other awards.
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ragtime
The Rocky Horror Show
The race: If the Best Musical race is hard to predict because few people feel strongly about any of the nominees, the Best Musical Revival competition has the opposite problem: Both Ragtime and Cats: The Jellicle Ball are excellent productions that are likely to win multiple awards this year. As we note below, Cats has an edge for direction, choreography and costumes, whereas Ragtime is likely to win one or more acting awards. That should add up to a win for Cats, the more artistically daring of the two shows. But voters like Ragtime more as a musical, and its liberal politics are less controversial than Cats's centering of queer and trans Black performers. Ragtime is widely favored to eke out a victory, but we predict that when push comes to shove, voters will acknowledge how original and special this Cats is.
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
Becky Shaw
Death of a Salesman
Every Brilliant Thing
Fallen Angels
Oedipus
The race: This has been an exceptional season for play revivals—so much so that the well-received productions of Marjorie Prime, Bug and Joe Turner's Come and Gone didn't even get nominated. But Joe Mantello's exquisite reinvention of Death of a Salesman, starring Nathan Lane and Laurie Metcalf as Willy and Linda Loman, is clearly the leader of the pack. We expect it to win more Tonys than any other play this season, and this one will be the cherry on top.
BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Jim Barne and Kit Buchan, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Tye Blue, Marla Mindelle and Constantine Rousouli, Titaníque
David Hornsby and Chris Hoch, The Lost Boys
Cinco Paul, Schmigadoon!
The race: Whether the whole production wins Best Musical or not, writer-composer Cinco Paul's Schmigadoon! is the show to beat in both writing categories. Paul's clever distillation of his own TV series is strongly structured and consistently funny. The Lost Boys's adaptation of the 1987 movie is smarter than it is generally given credit for, but it won't win. Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) has a chance—though its plot doesn't make much sense when you think about it—but the real dark horse here is the Titanic spoof Titaníque, which is chock-a-block with jokes and isn't favored to win anything else; a win in this race would give voters a chance to reward the production's three creators, who are also its director and stars. But we think the Tonys will choose Cinco over sink.
BEST SCORE
Steve Bargonetti, Joe Turner's Come and Gone
Jim Barne and Kit Buchan, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Cinco Paul, Schmigadoon!
The Rescues, The Lost Boys
Caroline Shaw, Death of a Salesman
The race: When people talk about "snubs" in the Tony nominations, they're usually being overdramatic; there are only so many slots, and some people will inevitably be left out with no animus involved. This year's Best Score race, however, has a genuine snub: Because the nominators didn't like the ill-timed The Queen of Versailles overall, they refused to recognize its best aspect—Stephen Schwartz's well-crafted score—opting to nominate incidental music from two plays instead. That's a blemish on a category that would have been likely anyhow to be won by Schmigadoon!'s affectionate pastiches of Golden Age Broadway tunes. Its biggest obstacle may be some confusion about whether the entire score is eligible or just the parts of it that weren't on TV. (The official answer: The entire score is eligible!) But we wouldn't entirely rule out an upset by Two Strangers in the only category in which it can put up a real fight.
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Sara Chase, Schmigadoon!
Stephanie Hsu, The Rocky Horror Show
Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Marla Mindelle, Titaníque
Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
The race: After last year's epic diva showdown, the competition for Best Actress in a Musical—usually one of the Tonys' marquee races—seems decidely muted. Marla Mindelle's hilarious and full-throated incarnation of Celine Dion is a hoot, and she gets bonus points for co-writing the musical; along with Best Book, this is Titaníque's best shot at a Tony win. But Caissie Levy remains the favorite for her more dramatic turn as Mother in Ragtime, which culminates in a stirring rendition of one of that show's most popular anthems, "Back to Before."
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Nicholas Christopher, Chess
Luke Evans, The Rocky Horror Show
Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Sam Tutty, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime
The race: This race has the strange distinction of being one of the most competitive and one of the least competitive races of the year: most, because all five performances are excellent, and could win in a different year; but also least, because Joshua Henry's vocally sensational portrayal of the aggrieved Coalhouse Walker Jr. in Ragtime makes him all but guaranteed to snag this award. It's the safest bet of the season: The Best Actor prize is Henry's to lose, and he won't.
BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels
Carrie Coon, Bug
Susannah Flood, Liberation
Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Kelli O’Hara, Fallen Angels
The race: The competition here is strong, but the smart money is on Lesley Manville for her heart-wrenching turn in Oedipus as the world's unluckiest MILF. The biggest obstacle to her victory might be voters' short memories, since Oedipus closed in February. Luckily, her performance—especially in her tragic climactic monologue—is hard to forget.
BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY
Will Harrison, Punch
Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman
John Lithgow, Giant
Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing
Mark Strong, Oedipus
The race: Lithgow and Lane, Broadway lifers both, are neck-and-neck in one of the season's tightest races. This is another one of those categories that make you wish for a tie; both actors are superb in their shows. Lane could benefit from Salesman fever—but that could also work against him if voters feel that Salesman is already winning enough and want to throw a little love Giant's way. That Lane has won Tonys more often (three to two) and more recently (2018 to 2002) could also help tip the scales ever so slightly in Lithgow's favor. Truly, though, this one's a coin toss.
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys
Hannah Cruz, Chess
Rachel Dratch, The Rocky Horror Show
Ana Gasteyer, Schmigadoon!
Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime
The race: If a few different actresses were in the mix—say, "Tempress" Chasity Moore from Cats, or McKenzie Kurtz and Isabelle McCalla from Schmigadoon!, or Stephanie Hsu from The Rocky Horror Show (who was oddly bumped up to Lead)—this would be a more interesting race. Lewis has the most dramatic role, but Audra McDonald's original performance casts a mighty long shadow over it. We suspect that Bean, a well-liked and well-respected industry vet who was also nominated in this category in 2022 and 2024, will finally get her flowers.
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Lost Boys
André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Bryce Pinkham, Chess
Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime
Layton Williams, Titaníque
The race: Stage icon André de Shields is generally favored to win for presiding royally over Cats: The Jellicle Ball, and he might very well do so. But we suspect this race is tighter than it seems, and have a feeling it could end in an upset for Ali Louis Bourzgui, who brings startling charisma and range to his portrayal of the principal vampire in The Lost Boys. If the voting is distributed widely enough, Ben Levi Ross and Layton Williams also have outside chances at the win. The only non-factor is Pinkham, a shock nomination for a gifted performer in an unbearable role who, through no fault of his own, is giving the season's second-most-annoying Broadway performance. (We'll resist naming the first-.)
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Betsy Aidem, Liberation
Marylouise Burke, The Balusters
Aya Cash, Giant
Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman
June Squibb, Marjorie Prime
The race: Laurie Metcalf should also have been nominated this year for her terrific lead performance in Little Bear Ridge Road. But voters do have to the chance to recognize her stunning supporting work in Death of a Salesman, and they are going to do just that.
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
Christopher Abbott, Death of a Salesman
Danny Burstein, Marjorie Prime
Brandon J. Dirden, Waiting for Godot
Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Richard Thomas, The Balusters
The race: Dirden was fantastic in Waiting for Godot—as was his Lucky scene partner Michael Patrick Thornton—but his nomination is the reward in one of the year's tightest races. We give a slight edge to Alden Ehrenreich, who won the New York Drama Critics' Circle Award for Best Individual Performance and would provide voters a way to honor the top-notch revival of Becky Shaw. But Christopher Abbott and Ruben Santiago-Hudson are very much in striking distance; any of them could take the statuette.
BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Lear deBessonet, Ragtime
Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon
Tim Jackson, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
The race: The Lost Boys is unimaginable without Arden's spectacular staging, but there is moire enthusiasm overall for the musical revivals this year. Even if Ragtime wins Best Revival, the dynamic duo behind Cats: The Jellicle Ball deserves kudos. Levingston and Rauch created a radically joyful and imaginative rehaul of material that many people assumed had no more lives left in it; their work is a model of what an artistically ambitious revival can be.
BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
Nicholas Hytner, Giant
Robert Icke, Oedipus
Kenny Leon, The Balusters
Joe Mantello, Death of a Salesman
Whitney White, Liberation
The race: Death of a Salesman is the production of the year, and that is largely due to Joe Mantello's extraordinary direction. Though he is arguably the predominant Broadway play director of our time, Mantello hasn't won a Tony since his back-to-back victories in 2003 and 2004. That dry spells ends now.
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon
Ellenore Scott, Ragtime
Ani Taj, The Rocky Horror Show
Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant, The Lost Boys
The race: Gattelli's jubilant production numbers in Schmigadoon! would guarantee him the award in most seasons, but not this one: The thrilling dancing in Cats: The Jellicle Ball is the red-hot core of this revival's reconception of the show's feline friends as a queer ballroom community.
BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
Doug Besterman and Mike Morris, Schmigadoon
Brian Usifer, Chess
Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ethan Popp, Kyler England, Adrianne "AG" Gonzalez and Gabriel Mann, The Lost Boys
Lux Pyramid, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
The race: Besterman and Morris's old-school orchestrations play a pivotal role in shaping the musical landscape of Schmigadoon!'s lovingly close parodies of yesteryear's Broadway tuners.
BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
dots, The Rocky Horror Show
Soutra Gilmour, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Rachel Hauck, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys
Scott Pask, Schmigadoon!
The race: This is another of the season's easiest calls: Laffrey's fruitful creative partnership with director Michael Arden won him a Tony last year for Maybe Happy Ending, and it is more or less 100% certain to do so again for his magnificent multitiered Lost Boys set.
BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY
Hildegard Bechtler, Oedipus
Takeshi Kata, Bug
David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon
Chloe Lamford, Death of a Salesman
David Rockwell, Fallen Angels
The race: Perpetual Tonys bridesmaid David Korins is long overdue for a win, and may get one for his perfectly executed 1970s bank in Dog Day Afternoon. But in this highly competitive race—which could go nearly any way—we give the slight edge to Chloe Lamford's elegantly skeletal vision for Death of a Salesman.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Linda Cho, Ragtime
Linda Cho, Schmigadoon!
Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ryan Park, The Lost Boys
David I. Reynoso, The Rocky Horror Show
The race: Although it was a banner year for doube nominee Linda Cho, it's hard to imagine anything beating Qween Jean's fabulous and explosively creative array of lewks in Cats, which earnd her a Special Citation from the New York Drama Critics' Circle this year.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY
Brenda Abbandandolo, Dog Day Afternoon
Qween Jean, Liberation
Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels
Emilio Sosa, The Balusters
Paul Tazewell, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
The race: It would be a delight to see force of culture Qween Jean win both of the costume categories this year, and her work in Liberation was essential to setting the historical scene (not to mention, in some cases, kick-ass cool). But something tells us this will be the category for voters to reward the much-loved Fallen Angels, in which Rose Byrne and Kelli O'Hara were gowned to the nines.
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Kevin Adams, Chess
Jane Cox, The Rocky Horror Show
Donald Holder, Schmigadoon!
Adam Honoré, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Adam Honoré, Donald Holder and 59 Studio, Ragtime
Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
The race: Honoré and Holder's double nominations will have to hold them as honor enough; the atmosphere-sculpting lighting in The Lost Boys is nearly sure to win, earning Arden his third Tony in four years even if he doesn't snag the prize for Best Director.
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY
Isabella Byrd, Dog Day Afternoon
Natasha Chivers, Oedipus
Stacey Derosier, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Heather Gilbert, Bug
Heather Gilbert, The Fear of 13
Jack Knowles, Death of a Salesman
The race: Gilbert is another two-timer in this category—both for plays directed by David Cromer, in collaboration with whom she has also earned two previous noms—but Knowles's beautiful work in Salesman should snare him his second consecutive Tony. (He won for Sunset Boulevard last year.)
BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Adam Fisher, The Lost Boys
Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Kai Harada, Ragtime
Brian Ronan, The Rocky Horror Show
Walter Trarbach, Schmigadoon
The race: The battle between Ragtime and Cats is at its most intimate in the race for Best Sound: Kai Harada is nominated separately for both productions. If he pulls off a win, it will probably be for Cats (though the music in Ragtime sounds glorious). We suspect, however, that Harada will cancel himself out, leaving the win to Adam Fisher's maximalist, concert-style design for The Lost Boys.
BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY
Justin Ellington, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Tom Gibbons, Oedipus
Lee Kinney, Fear of 13
Josh Schmidt, Bug
Mikaal Sulaiman, Death of a Salesman
The race: The Best Sound in a Play category is always amonbg the hardest to call, since many voters don't know what to listen for. Josh Schmidt's work in Bug was central to the play's creepy atmosphere, and Tom Gibbons also has a strong shot for Oedipus. But we'd bet on the Salesman train carrying Sulaiman to victory for his splendidly clear and layered design.
HONORARY AWARDS (NONCOMPETITIVE)
Special Tony Award:
League of Resident Theatres (LoRT)
Special Tony Award for Lifetime Achievement:
Andre Bishop
Jules Fisher
James Lapine
Isabella Stevenson Award
Mary-Mitchell Campbell
Regional Theatre Tony Award
American Players Theatre
Tony Honors for Excellence in the Theatre
1/52 Project
Jake Bell
Kenn Lubin
Loren Plotkin