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London August Bank Holiday 2026 weather forecast: will Notting Hill Carnival be a washout?

Thunderstorms are forecast for the capital on Friday and Saturday. Here’s how the weather will impact events like All Points East and Notting Hill Carnival

Amy Houghton
Written by
Amy Houghton
Contributing writer
Notting Hill Carnival in the rain
Photograph: Ms Jane Campbell / Shutterstock.com | Notting Hill Carnival in the rain
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London has arguably had far too much hot weather this summer. Over the last three months, we’ve endured five sweltering heatwaves that have turned the city’s parks to dust and completely wrecked our sleep schedule (and another heatwave is set for September). So, what sweet relief it was to finally have a few days below 25C and a miraculous little bit of rain.

It’s set to be bright and hot once more over the next couple of days, but when we reach the final bank holiday of the summer, things will cool down again. With major events like Notting Hill Carnival and All Points East (headlined by Tyler, the Creator and Twenty One Pilots), the weather could have a major impact on your plans. Here’s what forecasters are saying this weekend’s weather will look like. 

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Day-by-day forecast

Friday August 28

Both the Met Office and BBC say that most of Friday will be rainy. There is the possibility of thunder and lightning from 6pm until 8pm. The temperature will reach around 22C. 

Saturday August 29

On Saturday, we can expect rain from around midday and temperatures up to 22C. BBC Weather predicts that there will be thunderstorms between 7pm and 8pm. 

Sunday August 30

Rain is less likely on Sunday but there’s still a chance of light drizzle. Again, max temperature will be around 23C. 

Monday August 31

Monday is likely to have sunny intervals with a moderate breeze. The hottest it’ll get will be 22C. 

Tower Bridge in the rain, London
Photograph: ShutterstockTower Bridge in the rain, London

Event forecast

Notting Hill Carnival 

A little bit of drizzle won’t dampen Carni – it always goes ahead, rain or shine. Just make sure to bring an umbrella or waterproof jacket along with you. 

All Points East

The worst of the weather on Friday should pass before headliner Tyler, the Creator appears on stage. But there is still a likelihood of light rain all the way through to 11pm. The rapper’s Saturday set could be disturbed by the thunderstorm. 

At the moment, it looks like Sunday’s lineup will mostly avoid the wet weather. If you’re there for headliners Twenty One Pilots, you should be able to stay dry. At least you won’t have to worry about dust!

ICYMI: The Piccadilly line will be closed for three whole days this week

Plus: Everything you need to know about the London bus strikes

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