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Earlier this month, residents of NSW received a pretty important update on the weather front: El Niño was officially confirmed – expected to bring a warmer, drier few months across the state. According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shifted into an El Niño phase, a naturally occurring climate pattern that influences weather across the globe. Closer to home, it typically spells reduced rainfall and higher temperatures across eastern Australia – including here in NSW. So what does that actually look like in real life? We’ve broken down what the BoM has to say, and have pulled together some insights from experts from the University of Sydney, who have shone a little light on what it could mean in practice.
First up, here’s the breakdown from the BoM. For winter and spring 2026, the BoM’s latest long-range forecast suggests rainfall is likely to be below average across parts of southern and eastern Australia, while temperatures are expected to be above average in most areas. Translation: fewer rainy days, drier landscapes and a gradual ramp-up in temps. For NSW, as we know very well from climate disasters that have devastated our state over the past few years, that shift matters. The state’s east and inland regions are particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall, and the BoM notes that parts of north-eastern NSW have already experienced below-average rain so far this year. Heading into an El Niño phase, that raises the risk of further drying – especially across agricultural areas. According to the BoM, “below average rainfall” doesn’t mean no rain at all. Weather systems like east coast lows can still roll through and dump significant rainfall, even during an El Niño period. In other words, expect fewer rainy spells overall – but the occasional wild card is still very much on the table.
Temperature is the other big piece of the puzzle. El Niño events are typically linked with higher daytime temperatures, particularly in southern parts of Australia. Combined with long-term warming trends, that increases the likelihood of hotter days, heatwaves and elevated fire weather risk across NSW (BoM, 2026). There’s also a flow-on effect for winter. El Niño years often bring clearer skies, which can increase frost risk overnight – not exactly ideal news for farmers. And if you’re heading to the Snowy Mountains, you might notice lower peak snow depths this season, although snowfall can still vary significantly throughout winter. If this all sounds a bit familiar, that’s because it is. The last El Niño event in 2023–24 delivered Australia’s driest three-month period on record between August and October. That said, it didn’t stay dry forever – storms and tropical systems later brought above-average rainfall to many regions over summer.
According to the BoM, unpredictability is key. While El Niño tilts the odds towards drier and warmer conditions, it’s only one piece of a much bigger climate system. Factors like the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), sea surface temperatures and broader climate change trends all influence how things unfold. The BoM notes that if a positive IOD develops alongside El Niño this winter, it could further increase the chances of dry conditions in southern and eastern Australia.
As for how long this will stick around? Current forecasts suggest El Niño is likely to persist well into the latter half of 2026, typically peaking in summer before easing in early 2027.
So what does that mean for Sydneysiders? USyd’s Associate Professor David Ubilava, School of Economics, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences had this to say:
“While the impacts of El Niño will vary by region, drought can significantly disrupt agricultural production and impact local economies in vulnerable areas. There should be little concern about food shortage or price spikes, however. Fruits and vegetables in Australia are largely shielded through irrigation, while prices of our key export commodities are determined internationally, and El Niño is a global event, with potentially offsetting effects in key crop producing regions. The priority for Australia should be investing in resilience and adaptation infrastructure, including water security, irrigation infrastructure, climate information services and early warning systems, to protect farmers, communities and food security during and after weather events.”
In light of the tragic weather events that have stormed through the Northern Rivers region over recent years, USyd’s Dr Rebecca McNaught, Rural and Remote Health Research Fellow in the School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health had this to say:
"Repeated climate disasters that may be exacerbated by weather patterns such as El Niño can wear down the close relationships people rely on most for support, even as communities briefly pull together in the short term. My research shows these impacts build over time, especially for younger people, renters and those already disadvantaged, raising real concerns about long-term resilience as extreme weather events become more frequent. This highlights the need for faster recovery, stable housing and stronger support to help communities stay connected before, during and after disasters."
For the more vulnerable creatures we share the earth with, things are even more urgent. Professor Mark Krockenberger, Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science at the University of Sydney explains:
“While we have been able to document koalas managing their core body temperature to respond to short term heat events, it is fairly clear that drought and extended periods of high temperature can have severe effects on koala populations, causing direct deaths and also increasing susceptibility to disease. We have seen marked decline of koala populations in western NSW over the past 15 years, resulting from disease contributed to by drought and heat events.”
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