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Residents of NSW, consider this your weather heads-up: El Niño is officially underway – and it’s likely to bring a warmer, drier few months across the state. According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now shifted into an El Niño phase, a naturally occurring climate pattern that influences weather across the globe. Closer to home, it typically spells reduced rainfall and higher temperatures across eastern Australia – including here in NSW. So what does that actually look like in real life? For winter and spring 2026, the BoM’s latest long-range forecast suggests rainfall is likely to be below average across parts of southern and eastern Australia, while temperatures are expected to be above average in most areas. Translation: fewer rainy days, drier landscapes and a gradual ramp-up in temps.
For NSW, as we know very well from climate disasters that have devastated our state over the past few years, that shift matters. The state’s east and inland regions are particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall, and the BoM notes that parts of north-eastern NSW have already experienced below-average rain so far this year. Heading into an El Niño phase, that raises the risk of further drying – especially across agricultural areas. According to the BoM, “below average rainfall” doesn’t mean no rain at all. Weather systems like east coast lows can still roll through and dump significant rainfall, even during an El Niño period. In other words, expect fewer rainy spells overall – but the occasional wild card is still very much on the table.
Temperature is the other big piece of the puzzle. El Niño events are typically linked with higher daytime temperatures, particularly in southern parts of Australia. Combined with long-term warming trends, that increases the likelihood of hotter days, heatwaves and elevated fire weather risk across NSW (BoM, 2026). There’s also a flow-on effect for winter. El Niño years often bring clearer skies, which can increase frost risk overnight – not exactly ideal news for farmers. And if you’re heading to the Snowy Mountains, you might notice lower peak snow depths this season, although snowfall can still vary significantly throughout winter. If this all sounds a bit familiar, that’s because it is. The last El Niño event in 2023–24 delivered Australia’s driest three-month period on record between August and October. That said, it didn’t stay dry forever – storms and tropical systems later brought above-average rainfall to many regions over summer.
According to the BoM, unpredictability is key. While El Niño tilts the odds towards drier and warmer conditions, it’s only one piece of a much bigger climate system. Factors like the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), sea surface temperatures and broader climate change trends all influence how things unfold. The BoM notes that if a positive IOD develops alongside El Niño this winter, it could further increase the chances of dry conditions in southern and eastern Australia.
As for how long this will stick around? Current forecasts suggest El Niño is likely to persist well into the latter half of 2026, typically peaking in summer before easing in early 2027.
The takeaway for NSW is fairly straightforward: expect a season that leans drier, warmer and potentially more extreme at times. Not a guaranteed drought, not a rain-free forecast – but definitely a shift worth keeping on your radar.
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