Victoria is getting on top of the current Delta outbreak and is hoping to be able to ease restrictions in metropolitan Melbourne soon. But there is one rule that does not look like it will be going anywhere for months: the border with NSW is likely to remain closed until ambitious vaccination targets can be met.
At today's media conference, premier Dan Andrews was asked about the Doherty Institute modelling, which shows that Australia needs to get to 80 per cent adult vaccination rate before lockdowns can be abandoned. The Doherty modelling has formed the basis of the federal government's four-phase roadmap out of the pandemic, which the national cabinet has endorsed. A journalist asked the premier: "You said that the Doherty Institute modelling was based on very small case numbers, so does the outbreak in Sydney threaten those targets?"
"No, but I think the outbreak in Sydney means we're smart to have our borders closed, as difficult as that is," said Andrews. "The virus travels with people. Have a look at a map of New South Wales. This [outbreak] started in Bondi. It's not in Bondi anymore, it's everywhere, right across New South Wales. We've got to try and prevent it coming to Melbourne, and that's why we'll do whatever we can... I don't like locking Victorians out of their state, and I don't like locking Melburnians into their homes. But there's no choice until we get people vaccinated."
Chief health officer Brett Sutton was then asked, "Would lockdowns still be a feature of Victoria's Covid response post-80 per cent vaccination?" Sutton said: "That's what the modelling is telling us. Modelling is not a rock-solid prediction of the future, but if it is right... I fully expect that we don't have to go to lockdown... The New South Wales outbreak is a matter for New South Wales, our border management is what will protect Victoria, and if we've got very low case numbers or no case numbers and we get to that very high vaccination level, then lockdowns shouldn't have to be a feature."
When asked if that would mean that the border would remain closed even if 80 per cent of Victorians were vaccinated, Sutton deferred to the premier, who said: "The issue in relation to the border, that's a lockout, not a lockdown. And that will be there for so long as we believe that in Sydney, New South Wales or any other part of the country... the case numbers are too high."
Has there been any hint as to when those case numbers might come down enough to allow the border to open? At her daily media conference today, NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian said it was unlikely NSW would reach 70 per cent vaccination until the end of October. There has been no timeline estimate on 80 per cent vaccination as of yet, but the border could remain closed to our northern neighbours for quite a while yet.