What will win
It’s the hardest race of the night to call, with echoes of the 2016 squeaker between The Revenant, The Big Short and the eventual winner, Spotlight (which we predicted correctly, thank you). We’ll use that year as a guide and pick Green Book, a robust acting showcase (actors represent the largest Oscar voting bloc) that flatters its audience’s better angels. Watch it prevail over showier director-driven statements like Roma and The Favourite.
What should win
None of the eight nominees feel as heartsick and enraged as Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman, a deft 1970s period piece with contemporary resonance, and a mighty return to form for its director. Black Panther was thrilling as far as superhero movies go, but Trump-era Hollywood cries out for a wokeness that only Spike can provide.