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Earlier this month, residents of Victoria received a pretty important update on the weather front: El Niño was officially confirmed – expected to bring a warmer, drier few months across the state. According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shifted into an El Niño phase, a naturally occurring climate pattern that influences weather across the globe. Closer to home, it typically spells reduced rainfall and higher temperatures across eastern Australia – including here in Victoria. So what does that actually look like in real life? We’ve broken down what the BoM has to say, and have pulled together some insights from experts from the University of Sydney, who have shone a little light on what it could mean in practice.
First up, here’s what the BoM has to say. The BoM’s latest outlook for July to September suggests rainfall is likely to be below average across parts of southern Australia (including here in Victoria), while temperatures are expected to sit above average in most regions. In practical terms: fewer grey, drizzly days (yes, even in Melbourne), but a noticeable lean towards warmer conditions – so definitely not all good news, considering the looming climate crisis.
According to the BoM, “below average rainfall” doesn’t mean no rain at all – just less than we’d typically expect. Melbourne’s famously unpredictable weather isn’t going anywhere, and systems like cold fronts or low-pressure systems can still deliver a decent downpour when they roll through. What’s more significant is how that reduced rainfall plays out over time. Drier conditions can affect everything from soil moisture to water storage, particularly in regional Victoria. The BoM notes that parts of southern Victoria have already experienced below-average rainfall in 2026, meaning some areas are entering this El Niño phase with less of a buffer.
Then there’s the temperature factor. El Niño events are typically associated with higher daytime temperatures in southern Australia, and when you layer that on top of long-term warming trends, the likelihood of hotter days – and potentially early heatwaves – starts to climb. The BoM also flags an increased risk of extreme temperature shifts during El Niño, including more intense heat events and elevated fire weather conditions
Winter will bring its own quirks, too. Clearer skies during El Niño can increase the risk of frost overnight, particularly in regional areas. And if you’re planning a snow trip, you might notice lower peak snow depths in the alpine regions this season – although snowfall can still vary wildly from week to week.
If all this sounds familiar, it’s because we’ve been here before. The 2023–24 El Niño delivered Australia’s driest three-month period on record between August and October. But it wasn’t a straight line – conditions shifted later in the season, with storms and tropical systems bringing widespread rainfall over summer.
According to the BoM, variability is key. While El Niño increases the likelihood of drier and warmer conditions, it’s only one piece of a much bigger climate puzzle. Other factors – including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), regional sea surface temperatures and broader climate trends – can either amplify or soften its effects. The BoM notes that if a positive IOD develops alongside El Niño this winter, it could further increase the chance of dry conditions across southern Australia.
Looking ahead, current forecasts suggest El Niño will stick around through the latter half of 2026, likely peaking in summer before easing in early 2027.
So what does that mean for Victorians? USyd’s Associate Professor David Ubilava, School of Economics, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences had this to say:
“While the impacts of El Niño will vary by region, drought can significantly disrupt agricultural production and impact local economies in vulnerable areas. There should be little concern about food shortage or price spikes, however. Fruits and vegetables in Australia are largely shielded through irrigation, while prices of our key export commodities are determined internationally, and El Niño is a global event, with potentially offsetting effects in key crop producing regions. The priority for Australia should be investing in resilience and adaptation infrastructure, including water security, irrigation infrastructure, climate information services and early warning systems, to protect farmers, communities and food security during and after weather events.”
In light of the tragic weather events that have stormed through regional Australia (including here in Vic) over recent years, USyd’s Dr Rebecca McNaught, Rural and Remote Health Research Fellow in the School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health had this to say:
"Repeated climate disasters that may be exacerbated by weather patterns such as El Niño can wear down the close relationships people rely on most for support, even as communities briefly pull together in the short term. My research shows these impacts build over time, especially for younger people, renters and those already disadvantaged, raising real concerns about long-term resilience as extreme weather events become more frequent. This highlights the need for faster recovery, stable housing and stronger support to help communities stay connected before, during and after disasters."
For the more vulnerable creatures we share the earth with, things are even more urgent. Professor Mark Krockenberger, Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science at the University of Sydney explains:
“While we have been able to document koalas managing their core body temperature to respond to short term heat events, it is fairly clear that drought and extended periods of high temperature can have severe effects on koala populations, causing direct deaths and also increasing susceptibility to disease. We have seen marked decline of koala populations in western NSW over the past 15 years, resulting from disease contributed to by drought and heat events.”
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