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Melbourne, consider this your official weather memo: El Niño is back – and it’s set to tip the scales towards a warmer, drier season across Victoria. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has confirmed the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in an El Niño phase, a naturally occurring climate pattern that tends to dial down rainfall and turn up temperatures across much of eastern and southern Australia.
For Victorians, that shift is already starting to take shape. The BoM’s latest outlook for July to September suggests rainfall is likely to be below average across parts of southern Australia, while temperatures are expected to sit above average in most regions. In practical terms: fewer grey, drizzly days (yes, even in Melbourne), but a noticeable lean towards warmer conditions – so definitely not all good news, considering the looming climate crisis.
According to the BoM, “below average rainfall” doesn’t mean no rain at all – just less than we’d typically expect. Melbourne’s famously unpredictable weather isn’t going anywhere, and systems like cold fronts or low-pressure systems can still deliver a decent downpour when they roll through. What’s more significant is how that reduced rainfall plays out over time. Drier conditions can affect everything from soil moisture to water storage, particularly in regional Victoria. The BoM notes that parts of southern Victoria have already experienced below-average rainfall in 2026, meaning some areas are entering this El Niño phase with less of a buffer.
Then there’s the temperature factor. El Niño events are typically associated with higher daytime temperatures in southern Australia, and when you layer that on top of long-term warming trends, the likelihood of hotter days – and potentially early heatwaves – starts to climb. The BoM also flags an increased risk of extreme temperature shifts during El Niño, including more intense heat events and elevated fire weather conditions.
Winter will bring its own quirks, too. Clearer skies during El Niño can increase the risk of frost overnight, particularly in regional areas. And if you’re planning a snow trip, you might notice lower peak snow depths in the alpine regions this season – although snowfall can still vary wildly from week to week.
If all this sounds familiar, it’s because we’ve been here before. The 2023–24 El Niño delivered Australia’s driest three-month period on record between August and October. But it wasn’t a straight line – conditions shifted later in the season, with storms and tropical systems bringing widespread rainfall over summer.
According to the BoM, variability is key. While El Niño increases the likelihood of drier and warmer conditions, it’s only one piece of a much bigger climate puzzle. Other factors – including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), regional sea surface temperatures and broader climate trends – can either amplify or soften its effects. The BoM notes that if a positive IOD develops alongside El Niño this winter, it could further increase the chance of dry conditions across southern Australia.
Looking ahead, current forecasts suggest El Niño will stick around through the latter half of 2026, likely peaking in summer before easing in early 2027. The bottom line for Melbourne and the rest of Victoria? Expect a season that leans warmer and drier than usual, with a higher chance of heat extremes and fire weather as the year progresses. You can stay up-to-date over here.
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