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Sweating through a Hong Kong summer is practically a local rite of passage. But if you thought the city’s heat couldn’t possibly turn up another notch, the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) has news for you.
Coming off the back of 2025, which was reportedly Hong Kong’s sixth warmest year, it seems like the heat isn’t letting up. According to HKO director Chan Pak-wai, this trend is driven by a combination of long-term global climate warming and the possible development of El Niño – a climate pattern with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean – so the 2026 annual mean temperature in Hong Kong is expected to be above normal, ranking among the top 10 hottest years on record for the city.
Our scorching temperatures aren’t the only thing to watch. The HKO predicts that the tropical cyclone season will start in June or later and end by October, with four to seven tropical cyclones to come within 500 kilometres of Hong Kong. While last year saw a record-breaking 14 storms necessitating typhoon signals, this year’s forecast suggests a lower frequency of direct hits. According to Chan, tropical cyclones are expected to form further east, increasing their tendency to “recurve” or turn northward towards higher latitudes.
When they do arrive, however, we can expect the Observatory to be using more advanced tools to track them, as the HKO is ramping up its use of artificial intelligence to improve forecasts, particularly for heavy rain and cyclone intensity. Additionally, a new Coastal Sea Level trial webpage has been launched to provide 12-hour water level forecasts for 14 tide stations in Hong Kong, factoring in storm surges associated with tropical cyclones and other meteorological factors like monsoons. For those living or travelling near the coast, the Observatory will also now include warnings for overtopping waves in typhoon warning bulletins, which could be a crucial update given the high flooding risks in Hong Kong.
Despite the slightly quieter typhoon forecast, don’t let your guard down. The annual rainfall is expected to be near normal (between 2,100 and 2,700 millimetres), but the city will still face rainstorms and localised heavy rain. To help residents cope with the forecast hot and humid conditions, the Observatory will also launch a Hong Kong Heat Index on its website later this year, providing district-level data on the combined effects of temperature, humidity, and solar radiation.
It looks like we’re in for another damp and sweltering year, so charge your portable fan, pack your brolly, and accept that summer in Hong Kong now basically lasts 11 months.
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